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Benter had achieved something without known precedent: a kind of horse-racing hedge fund, and a quantitative one at that, using probabilistic modeling to beat the market and deliver returns to investors. Probably the only other one of its kind was Woods’s operation, and Benter had written its code base. Their returns kept growing. Woods made $10 million in the 1994-95 season and bought a Rolls-Royce that he never drove. Benter purchased a stake in a French vineyard. It was impossible to keep their success secret, and they both attracted employees and hangers-on, some of whom switched back and forth between the Benter and Woods teams. One was Bob Moore, a manic New Zealander whose passions were cocaine and video analysis. He’d watch footage of past races to identify horses that should have won but were bumped or blocked and prevented from doing so. It worked as a kind of bad-luck adjuster and made the algorithms more effective.
Benter’s model required his undivided attention. It monitored only about 20 inputs—just a fraction of the infinite factors that influence a horse’s performance, from wind speed to what it ate for breakfast. In pursuit of mathematical perfection, he became convinced that horses raced differently according to temperature, and when he learned that British meteorologists kept an archive of Hong Kong weather data in southwest England, he traveled there by plane and rail. A bemused archivist led him to a dusty library basement, where Benter copied years of figures into his notebook. When he got back to Hong Kong, he entered the data into his computers—and found it had no effect whatsoever on race outcomes. Such was the scientific process.
Expected value is a term professional gamblers use on a regular basis. To explain what it means in simple terms I’ll use an example. Let’s say me and you decided to have a coin flipping contest. We flip coins and you give me $1 for each outcome of heads; I give you $1 for each outcome of tails. We could flip coins for all eternity and neither of us will ever have an advantage because on average half the time we lose $1 half the time we win $1. While there will be swings back and forth, as long as we flip the coin enough times eventually we’ll both break even. This particular bet has neutral expected value.
The weekend is a punters paradise and we have tips for the whole weekend. From the lunch time kick off on Saturday all the way through to the late night South American Sunday leagues. We have a full schedule of accumulators which includes win-draw-win, both teams to score and both teams to score and win. Our correct score double tips are unique and you won’t find them any other place on the internet. We also cover other sports on the weekend from NBA, NFL MLB, NHL, Golf and Tennis which you can find on our home page!
War of Will wins the LeComte Stakes (G3) - Saturday at the Fair Grounds was Road to the Derby Kickoff Day with the LeComte Stakes (G3) won by War of Will, the Silverbulletday Stakes won by Needs Supervision, the Colonel E.R. Bradley Handicap won by First Premio, the Marie G. Krantz Memorial Stakes won by Dubara, and the Louisiana Stakes won by Harlan Punch. Get the results, charts, and photos here.
Midnight Bisou wins the Cotillion Stakes (G1) in a disqualification - Again at Parx, Monomoy Girl finished first by a neck over Midnight Bisou in the Cotillion (G1), but was disqualified to 2nd for interference in the stretch. Also on the card, Aztec Sense won the PA Derby Champion Stakes and Fast and Accurate won the Alphabet Soup Stakes. Get the results, chart, and photos here.
Horse racing has a long and distinguished history and has been practised in civilisations across the world since ancient times. Archaeological records indicate that horse racing occurred in Ancient Greece, Babylon, Syria, and Egypt. It also plays an important part of myth and legend, such as the contest between the steeds of the god Odin and the giant Hrungnir in Norse mythology.