I’m a total rookie and only just started dipping my toe into the trading world. I’m doing a couple of test beat manually without software. I’ve done a couple of back to lays, one very successful fluke which I just let run as it was a £2 stake at 180 which ended up winning but the other couple lost money. My question is this : this morning I backed music society at 4.1 early this morning expecting it to come in to low 3s by lunchtime with Ryan Moore being on board and it being first itv race. By late morning it has drifted to 4.4. Is it a silly rookie mistake to back horses the night before or very early morning? Thanks in advance.
Developing a strategy is crucial. But researching the value in your strategy is very time-consuming. You should only be betting on games where you see true value in your strategy and not betting in bulk. For example, let’s say that you saw a trend that shows betting on reverse line moves for home teams. This trend has been winning 65% of the time over the past month so you decide you will only bet games that fit this profile. Finding games like this at the right line is no easy task. Even using a system like Sports Insights that alerts reverse line moves, you have to pay attention and find the best line that reflects the reverse line move. You also have to be sure that it is in favor of the home team. If the line has already moved then it likely doesn’t make sense to take the home team in this situation.
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