Touts often claim to be able to hit 60% or higher, but as I explain in my essay on Bayesian Probability, anyone who tells you that their long term expected winning percentage is higher than 60% is deluding themselves. Ten or more years ago a sharp handicapper could win about 60% long term but those days are over, as odds makers have become more savvy in the past decade or so. For a bettor to claim a greater than 60% long term expected win percentage, that would be mean that Vegas would have to consistently release lines with egregious errors, and that simply just does not happen often enough nowadays for claims of a greater than 60% long term expected win percentage. Any short term win rates of around 60% or higher are simply due to blind, short-term luck. For instance, last year (2016) in the first season using a new NFL play-by-play model, Dr. Bob Sports’ NFL Best Bet sides were an incredible 66-26 (71.7%), but that record was enhanced by winning a very large percentage of close games (31-12 on Best Bets decided by 7 points or less) rather than splitting the close ones. It still would have been a great season on NFL Best Bet sides (62%) if the close games had been 50% but I still can’t expect the new model to win 60%-plus on sides based on that one season – although the play-by-play model back-tested at a very profitable 56% winners.
In the time since the May Supreme Court decision, both Delaware and New Jersey have begun accepting bets on sports at casinos and racetracks. Mississippi, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania are all hoping to be in the next wave of states to do so, with many seeing the start of the NFL season as a target date for the launch of sportsbooks in these states.
If you bet in a profitable manner and have just a tad bit of luck, it is likely that after a few months’ time you will have built up a very substantial bankroll and probably enough profits to be able to use a decent chunk of them on your own expenses and needs. It is at this point that you can say you have won, when your bankroll is healthy and there is plenty of money left over to withdraw and spend on yourself.
When it comes to sports betting in the U.S., there’s a lot happening from mid-January through to May. Although many sports bettors feel that after the college football championship game and Super Bowl are over, that they’re simply waiting for NFL and NCAA football to start once again. But the fact is there’s more sports betting opportunities from January through to August than any other time and this is primetime for real cash sports betting.
For example, when two teams play a game of soccer, the bookmakers set odds of each team recording a win, loss, or draw. Sometimes large numbers of people can bet on a particular outcome for reasons that are unrelated to the odds—that team might be more popular than expected, for example. In that case, the bookmaker is set for a large payout if that outcome occurs.
Firstly, see the below table (sourced from Statista ) showing the amount of money people loose through gambling. In the US, the loss accounts around 0.6% of the whole nation’s GNP. Whatever American Gambling Association say or justify,  it’s a huge amount. No wonder people perceive gambling as a loser’s game and never even think about chances to make a living from it;
I know that everyone wants to bet like they are Warren Buffet. But guys that have been successful in any “speculation market,” which is essentially what sports betting is, have done so through patience and savvy. I know it’s not “sexy” to say that you bet $112 on a game. People would much rather play for $500 to $1000 per game. But let’s leave sexy for the MTV crowd. To me being smart with your money and slowly growing your bank account is the best way to really make gambling part of your long-term enjoyment.
The 76ers are one of the hottest up and coming teams in the NBA and the Golden Nugget in Atlantic City will certainly miss not being able to book their games. In addition to being close to Pennsylvania, New Jersey also borders New York City. Until both states legalize sports betting, New Jersey will be the only legal game in town. While Atlantic City isn’t considered a New York sports market, they certainly have Knicks fans visiting frequently. We’d be remiss if we didn’t mention the 4,500 Nets fans in Brooklyn that could also be visitors. The Golden Nugget will certainly miss out the action from those three teams alone.
FootballExpert is your home for up-to-date betting previews and predictions on the biggest football matches. Our team of experts scour the web for up-to-date team news and betting odds to deliver comprehensive previews and recommended bets. Covering everything from club friendlies to the Champions League, as well as international matches and major tournaments, we deliver previews and betting guides for all of the biggest matches to maximise your chance to profit at the bookmakers. Read more
“All of us at Caesars Entertainment are thrilled to be the first-ever casino partner of the NFL, the most prominent sports league in North America,” said Mark Frissora, president and CEO of Caesars Entertainment. “Combining the league’s 180 million fans with our 55 million Total Rewards loyalty program members will expose millions of people to the exclusive and exciting year-round opportunities at our properties.”
A picks service is a professional handicapping company that provides sports bettors with predictions for a fee. Most picks services run on a subscription model where you can purchase predictions for a day, a week, a year or for a season. Handicapping and betting tips are offered on every major sport like the NBA, NFL, NHL, MLB, soccer, and college football and basketball. You’ll also be able to purchase picks for the WNBA, CFL and the UFC. Though, not every professional picks site provides angles and predictions for every UFC fight or every soccer game.
A successful sports betting strategy begins with managing your bankroll. To make a living betting sports, you must treat it as you would any other business. The old saying is that you should not use your rent money to bet with. That is true. But if you're betting for a living it is equally true that you must not use your gambling bankroll to pay the rent.
There's been so much buzz about the 18-year-old Englishman plying his trade in the Bundesliga, and rightfully so -- he already has four goals and six assists in 10 games domestically, and one apiece in three Champions League games. But Borussia Dortmund are playing at Atletico Madrid, which should be difficult, despite the fact Dortmund beat them 4-0 in Germany.
Unfortunately, there is no simple right or wrong answer to that complicated question. But, any professional handicapper that claims to have never seen a loss is full of it. However, there are reputable picks services out there that provide analysis on top of their predictions. Buying picks is different for every bettor and their own personal situation. Below we’ll explore why that is and if paying for picks is worth it.
When Tottenham and Borussia Dortmund clash on Wednesday in the first leg of their UEFA Champions League Round of 16 matchups, this will mark the third meeting between the two clubs in the last three seasons. Tottenham did the double over Dortmund in the 2017 Champions' League group stage, while Dortmund got the jump on the Hotspurs in the 2016 Europa League quarterfinals. Read More >>

“All of us at Caesars Entertainment are thrilled to be the first-ever casino partner of the NFL, the most prominent sports league in North America,” said Mark Frissora, president and CEO of Caesars Entertainment. “Combining the league’s 180 million fans with our 55 million Total Rewards loyalty program members will expose millions of people to the exclusive and exciting year-round opportunities at our properties.”
He's coming off a huge game against Southampton, with two goals and two assists. But Sterling was very quiet in the first game against Shakhtar, finishing with just 5.7 points. He also failed to register a goal or assist in Manchester City's first two Champions League games, against Lyon and Hoffenheim. Silva is the safer play -- he'll probably have many more passes completed, and more chances created. And hopefully he'll pick up a goal and/or assist, too.
I don’t believe that the term ‘gambling’ applies to what I do. I sell information to subscribers, with which they can take positive expectation positions in uncertain markets. With correct financial optimization and bankroll management, long term risks are nominal compared to the risks of investing in other, more conventional markets. Just as a single stock may go up or down in a day, any one team may win or lose a given game. But as long as the investor maintains a long-term perspective, understands variance, and doesn’t over-extend themselves or bet more than they can easily handle, risk can be highly mitigated, and they can earn a very attractive risk adjusted return.
Why don’t more people win at sports betting. Like any other endeavor, it takes time, patience and practice to become successful. A person of average intelligence can become a winning handicapper if they have the desire. Based on the odds of -110 for a straight football or basketball bet a handicapper only need to be right 52.38 percent of the time to break even. However, many sports bettors cannot achieve that percentage of winning over the long run.

In 2012, despite federal law preventions, the state legislature of New Jersey and Governor Chris Christie signed a law that would allow sports betting to take place in New Jersey race tracks and Atlantic City casinos.[15] In August 2012, Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind conducted a study on the issue. Voters were asked whether New Jersey should allow sports betting even if federal law prevents it from doing so, or wait to allow sports betting until federal law permits it. Results showed that nearly half (45%) of voters wanted to allow sports betting, while (38%) decided to wait and allow sports betting once Congress allows it. Krista Jenkins, director of the poll, commented, "Although support is not overwhelming, these numbers suggest the public is cautiously behind the goal of moving forward with legalized sports betting."[16]
Sports betting has resulted in a number of scandals in sport, affecting the integrity of sports events through various acts including point shaving (players affecting the score by missing shots), spot-fixing (a player action is fixed), bad calls from officials at key moments, and overall match fixing (the overall result of the event is fixed). Examples include the 1919 World Series, the alleged (and later admitted) illegal gambling of former MLB player Pete Rose, and former NBA referee Tim Donaghy.
And in a twist, it has been one of the very sports leagues that took New Jersey to court over PASPA, one of the same leagues that were laughed and shouted out of the room when meeting with Jersey lawmakers for possible integrity fees, that are speaking out on the state’s rates and fees. (For perspective, neighboring New Jersey will tax in-person revenue at 8.5 percent at casinos and racetracks, online casino revenue at 13 percent and online track revenue at 14.25 percent; Nevada has a 5-percent tax rate.)
Look at the above example again. You and your buddy each paid $10 to the bookie to place your bet. That’s what the standard 11/10 odds in sports betting are all about. You bet the Cowboys and your buddy bet the Redskins, a total of $220 bet. The sportsbook has to pay back $210 to the winner, leaving a nice $10 profit no matter what happens on the football field. That $10 built-in profit is called the vigorish, and it’s the final monkey wrench in the gears of sports betting.
We will say that online sports betting may not be legal where you live, so please check your local laws before placing bets online at these sports betting sites. And we also want to point out that there have been “scam” type sites in the past known to steal money from their bettors, so make sure you stick with recommended betting sites we list here at The Sports Geek.

There's been so much buzz about the 18-year-old Englishman plying his trade in the Bundesliga, and rightfully so -- he already has four goals and six assists in 10 games domestically, and one apiece in three Champions League games. But Borussia Dortmund are playing at Atletico Madrid, which should be difficult, despite the fact Dortmund beat them 4-0 in Germany.
The easiest way to demonstrate the math behind a sports bet is to make up an example. Let’s say you and your buddy walk into a casino, each with $200 burning a hole in your pocket. There’s a big game on tonight, the Cowboys and the Redskins, so you wander into the sportsbook to check up on the latest news about the game. While you’re sitting there, you see the wagering board, with some funny numbers on it. It looks like this:
One of those close calls came in a loss at Monmouth by a mere 2-points. That doesn't concern me here, as the Iona won the first meeting 103-84 at home. That fact that they lost the most recent matchup is actually a positive. Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are revenging a same season loss and playing their 2nd road game in 3 days are 122-67 (65%) ATS going all the way back to 1997. 
Odds are, if you are sports bettor, or just a sports fan who makes occasional bets, you’ve seen ads promoting the handicapper who always win and never loses. These ads are found across the internet from professional handicappers offering you their winning picks for a promotional price. But, is it really worth it to fork out a few bucks for what you hope will be picks that translate to winning bets?
The cost of my College football service is $895, the cost of the NFL service is $995 ($1,595 for both services), my Basketball service is $895 ($2,195 for all Football and Dr. Bob’s Basketball service), and the NBA Guru subscription is well worth the $1495 given how profitable he’s been ($3,295 for all Football and all Basketball, including the NBA Guru). You must factor in that cost when calculating your expected return on investment (ROI). As explained above, winning 55% on the Football Best Bets and 53.5% on my Basketball Best Bets would yield an expected profit of +45.5 Stars and let’s assume the NBA Guru profits +27.2 Stars as well (he’s averaged +27.2 Stars per season). Let’s say you decide to play 1.0% of your initial bankroll per star on the Football Best Bets and NBA Guru Best Bets and 0.8% per star on the Basketball Best Bets, as in the example above. Doing so would have an expected total return 68.0% per year based on flat-betting using your initial bankroll. Using an optimal betting strategy, as explained in the advanced money management section, would yield even higher long term returns while protecting the downside risk in the inevitable negative variance seasons that plague even the best long term handicappers.
Critical. If you don't understand betting value, walk away. Sure you might be certain that a favourite at odds of 1.45 is going to win, but are the odds being offered giving any value? Plenty of times I've heard casual gamblers say "There's no way this team is going to lose this game." Well they might be legitimate favourites, but is the probability of them winning better than the odds being offered? Betting with this frame of mind is a little like saying an over-priced $2000 wide-screen TV was good value just because you really really really wanted it.
He had a clean sheet, plus one save, at AEK Athens two weeks ago. I think another clean sheet at home is very likely, and hopefully Neuer will pick up a save or two as well. AEK do have 25 shots, and eight on target, in their first three games. I also considered Alisson of Liverpool, but he didn't have to make a single save two weeks ago, and Red Star Belgrade have only taken 15 shots, the lowest total in the competition.
Straight-up bets, also known as the moneyline, are picks that are made on one club triumphing over the other. If Manchester City is playing Watford, in order to make a moneyline wager you’d need to pick one of those clubs to win. If you choose Man City and they do win, you’d win your moneyline bet. If the inverse happens and Watford wins, you’d lose your moneyline bet.
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