The Key: The Utah Jazz will be hungry for a victory tonight over the Oklahoma City Thunder.  They have lost all 3 meetings with the Thunder this season, including the last two in excruciating fashion by a single point each.  They’ll avoid the season sweep and get a win and cover at home tonight.  The Thunder have been vulnerable of late, going 3-7 SU & 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They just aren’t playing much defense at all, allowing 108-plus points in 11 of their last 12 games overall.  The Jazz are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games off a loss.  Take Utah.
These recreational bettors account for the majority of people who bet on sports, but there are also plenty of people who bet primarily to make money. This doesn’t mean that they don’t still enjoy themselves, it’s just that their motivations are different. They generally put a lot more thought into the wagers that they make, and dedicate some time to researching and analyzing the various factors that can affect the outcome of games and events.
The Buckeye State has a total of 11 land-based and racetrack casinos. One of its lawmakers, Sen. Bill Coley, notably advocated for interstate sports betting compacts that would include data sharing between jurisdictions at a U.S. Sports Betting Policy Summit in Washington, D.C. in November. That concept is deemed too ambitious by many at the moment, especially given recent rumblings about a forthcoming revised legal opinion on the reach of the Wire Act.
Most bettors place lots of wagers because they think it will improve their chances of making money. We can see the logic in thinking this way, but the opposite is actually true. It’s the QUALITY of our wagers that improves our chances of making money, not the quantity of them. And the more wagers we place, the less likely we are to place good wagers.

After the event, Manfred spoke briefly with reporters about the legalization of sports betting. Last year, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that states were allowed to legalize sports gambling within their borders, overturning a longtime ban on the practice. Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker has proposed a sports-betting system in the Bay State, as have several lawmakers on Beacon Hill.
As the baseball season moves through June, July and August, it’s time to prep for the NFL and college football. In September, you’re getting ready for the NBA, NHL, and college basketball. All of a sudden, football is being played again. By the way, at one point football, basketball, hockey, and baseball are all being played. It’s a crazy time to bet.
Ray Wallin is a licensed civil engineer and part-time handicapper who has had a presence on the Web since 2000 for various sports and horse racing websites and through his personal blog. Introduced to the sport over the course of a misspent teenage summer at Monmouth Park by his Uncle Dutch, a professional gambler, he quickly fell in love with racing and has been handicapping for over 25 years.
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Most bettors place lots of wagers because they think it will improve their chances of making money. We can see the logic in thinking this way, but the opposite is actually true. It’s the QUALITY of our wagers that improves our chances of making money, not the quantity of them. And the more wagers we place, the less likely we are to place good wagers.
This is a relatively new one for sports bettors to deal with, as many online sportsbooks now have casino-style gaming, which is too much for some sports bettors, including some very good sports bettors, to walk away from. It's not unheard of for a solid sports bettor to generally show a profit each week, but give that money back, plus a little extra, playing the casino games their sportsbooks offer.

My long term percentage on College Football Best Bets is 56% (1290-1017-40 over 29 years) and the new NFL play-by play model was 100-69 (59.2%) in 2016. However, despite being a combined 148-107 (58.0%) on Football Best Bets, college and NFL, in 2016, I will continue to use 55% winners as a realistic goal going forward. If I expect 55% on 200 Football Best Bets (I had 255 last year, which was higher than expected) then the expected profit at -110 odds would be 200 x (0.55 – (1.1 x 0.45), which is +11.0 units (or +22.0 Stars if my average Best Bet is rated 2-Stars). The Kelly Criterion recommends a wager of 3.4% of your bankroll for a wager with a 55% chance of winning and odds of -110. However, the Kelly formula assumes sequential betting and sports betting usually involves simultaneous betting, which is part of the reason behind using some fraction of full Kelly to reduce risk. If I play 2.0% of my initial bankroll per bet, or 1.0% per Star, (i.e. flat betting) then my expected return during football season (5 months) is 22.0%. Adjusting your bankroll after each week rather than flat betting will increase your expected return, as explained in the KC simulation section of my money management section.


It was that group that decided to get all Ottoman Empire on a still-unborn industry by proposing a head-spinning 36 percent tax – 34 percent to the state, 2 percent to local coffers – on gross sports betting revenue. Yes, that is in fact gross. That rate is on top of an up-front $10 million fee just for properties to obtain a sports betting license.
However, skewed public perception, results-oriented analysis, and unsound metrics result in point spreads that are often biased one way or another. While the casual bettor does not possess the capacity to exploit these advantages, I have used mathematical models, situational analysis, significant trends and quantitative player analysis that are far more complex and accurate than anything else on the market to gain an advantage, which is why I have won 53% to 56% of my Best Bets (depending on the sport) over the last 29 years.
Critical. If you don't understand betting value, walk away. Sure you might be certain that a favourite at odds of 1.45 is going to win, but are the odds being offered giving any value? Plenty of times I've heard casual gamblers say "There's no way this team is going to lose this game." Well they might be legitimate favourites, but is the probability of them winning better than the odds being offered? Betting with this frame of mind is a little like saying an over-priced $2000 wide-screen TV was good value just because you really really really wanted it.
Ideally, the Sports book would like to have the same amount of money wagered on the two teams playing. If the Giants are playing the Colts and they have one player betting on the Giants and one player betting on the Colts they would pay the winner $100 but collect $110 for the loser. This gives them a $10 profit. To accomplish this they assign a line or spread to make the contest equally attractive for both sides.

Picks services are, as we stated above, companies that offer predictions on different sports for a small fee. There are mixed feelings in the sports betting world about picks services. But, they can help bettors who are looking for more information about why they should bet on a certain game, fight, race, pitcher etc. Although pay-for sports picks sites have gotten mixed reviews over the years, there are many trustworthy companies who won't take your money and run. Any site we champion on OddsShark gets our seal of approval.
OKC fell by eight to the Los Angeles Clippers Friday night. The squad seems off balance, and several players have criticized the officiating lately, Paul George in particular who was fined for ripping refs after the loss to the Clips. To be fair, the Thunder might have a point (their opponents have been awarded a combined 93 free throws last two games), but wasting energy on such matters won't do them any good.   
Together, college and pro basketball have historically been one of the biggest winners for sportsbooks in Nevada. According to UNLV Gaming, sportsbooks actually won more money in 2017 from basketball than any other sport. Last year college and pro basketball win for sportsbooks were $87,431,000 while football (college and pro) was $76,896,000. Basketball accounted for slightly more than 35% of the win for sportsbooks last year.

Sen. Denny Hoskins’ (R-MO) piece of proposed legislation, SB 44, includes a 1 percent royalty or integrity fee, but with half of it earmarked toward an Entertainment Facilities Infrastructure Fund that would be used for the upkeep of sports or cultural facilities within Missouri. The bill sets a tax on adjusted sports betting gross revenue at 6.25 percent. A $5,000 annual administrative fee and $10,000 “reinvestigation fee” that sounds more ominous than intended would also apply. The latter would go into a fund that would eventually mature every fifth year when the licensee is re-vetted.
The novelty of the bill stems from the fact it does not address the establishment of a brick-and-mortar sports betting market within the state whatsoever (Virginia does not have any casinos, tribal or commercial). Instead, it aims to legalize and regulate sports betting “platforms” that are better defined as a “website, app, or other platform accessible via the Internet or mobile, wireless, or similar communications technology that sports bettors use to place sports bets.”

After the event, Manfred spoke briefly with reporters about the legalization of sports betting. Last year, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that states were allowed to legalize sports gambling within their borders, overturning a longtime ban on the practice. Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker has proposed a sports-betting system in the Bay State, as have several lawmakers on Beacon Hill.
If you put $5,000 into a bank savings account and let it draw interest for a year, you could expect to make about $100 to $150. (I think even two or three percent is unlikely these days, but we’ll use this as an example) But many of us get very greedy when using that same $5000 to bet sports and feel that a $1000 or $2000 seasonal profit is unacceptable. Yet this is roughly 10 times what you would have made by putting the same amount of money it into the bank and, personally, I don’t know of too many investment advisors, individual stocks, ETFs, bonds, or mutual funds that can make you a consistent 15 -30 percent each year, do you? 
The Thunder are faced with a seeding decision before tonight's tip against the Jazz at Vivint Smart. OKC's conundrum is whether they want to sell out in the final month of the regular season by playing their first rotation major minutes or saving their legs for postseason play. A focus on the team's final 16-games of the regular season to remain one of the top four seeds in the West requires playing Russell Westbrook and Paul George in excess of their season average in minutes played. This asking allot considering the pairs 36 minutes per game this season. 
The most recent development in Kentucky is particularly interesting. State Attorney General Andy Beshear, publicly threw his support behind the idea of legislators passing an expansive gaming bill in 2019 that would encompass not just sports betting, but daily fantasy sports, casinos and online poker as well. The impetus for Beshear’s stance is relatively straightforward — much-needed revenue for the state coffers, including an estimated $30 million annually from sports betting that would help fully fund the state’s pension systems.
Sports betting services are provided by companies such as William Hill, Ladbrokes, bet365, bwin, Paddy Power, betfair, Unibet and many more through their websites and in many cases betting shops. In 2015, William Hill generated around 2.37 billion U.S. dollars in revenue with about 13.26 billion U.S. dollars in total being staked / wagered with the company.
There are two main reasons why people choose to bet on sports. A lot of people are what are known as recreational bettors, and they bet primarily for fun. They obviously want to win money if they can (who doesn’t?), but that isn’t what really motivates them. They don’t put any real effort into making good betting decisions, and they don’t take things very seriously. Betting is basically just a form of entertainment for them, and they enjoy it because it makes watching their favorite sports that much more exciting. They also enjoy the challenge of putting their sports knowledge to the test.

Betting on football matches is becoming more popular year on year, with a growing number of online bookmakers available to bet with. With football one of the world’s most popular sports, it is little surprise to see so much money is bet on the biggest games every day, with popular football betting markets including accumulators, both teams to score (BTTS) and goalscorer markets.

I don’t believe that the term ‘gambling’ applies to what I do. I sell information to subscribers, with which they can take positive expectation positions in uncertain markets. With correct financial optimization and bankroll management, long term risks are nominal compared to the risks of investing in other, more conventional markets. Just as a single stock may go up or down in a day, any one team may win or lose a given game. But as long as the investor maintains a long-term perspective, understands variance, and doesn’t over-extend themselves or bet more than they can easily handle, risk can be highly mitigated, and they can earn a very attractive risk adjusted return.
There are 2 types of people who bet sports. Recreational Punter who bet for fun as a hobby with the hope of winning. On the other hand, Non Casual Punter bet seriously for living or at least Not only for fun. I said people who can make a living sports betting is not many.  It’s supposed to be far less than 5% sports bettors who constantly win and they are called Sharp. We don’t know if such 5% successful sports bettors can really make ends meet with just sports betting but at least they don’t lose to the bookies. The rest 95% recreational punters surely loose in the long-run. How do professional gamblers make money in the first place? or What makes the difference between the 2 punters? Yes, “Character”.
Bookies look at the weight of their books all the time and adjust odds and other factors to make sure their books balance. Though it isn’t possible to completely balance a book, bookies that go too far out on one side run the risk of losing money, and losing money in gambling is the fastest way to find yourself in another industry. All of these factors are why bookies generally root for the underdog—too many favorites winning in a sport with a short season (such as the NFL) can cause a bookmaker to lose money, while a bunch of upsets (like you generally see in college football) is a guaranteed profit for the bookmaker.

All-everything guard Donovan Mitchell has seen an uptick in his production of late. But even Mitchell's 38 points on 12-of-24 shooting on Friday night wasn't enough for the team to overcome a 114-104 loss to Memphis. Coach Quin Synder and his player personnel are rarely successful unless they defend at a high level. And with the short bench the ability to do so has been an issue. Furthermore it will continue to be such in the latter part of the regular season.
If you had $20,000 that you could comfortably afford to risk as your sports wagering bankroll and $3,295 went to pay for the all Football and all Basketball service, then you would have $16,705 left for wagering. As explained above the expected return on the combined Dr Bob Football and Basketball and NBA Guru Basketball services is +68.0% per year (using a less optimal flat betting approach), which would result in a return wagering profit of +$11,359 on the $16,705 initial bankroll. The overall profit, after factoring in the cost of the services, would be $8,064 (($16,705 x 0.68) – $3,295 = +$8,064), which is a very good 40.3% expected return on your $20,000. That percentage return is higher for higher bankrolls and lower for lower bankrolls since the cost of service becomes a smaller percentage of higher bankrolls and a higher percentage of smaller bankrolls. If you want to subscribe to the all Football and all Basketball package you would need a total of at least $4,846 to invest to expect a positive return after factoring in the cost of the service. The calculations above are based on expected results based on long term records and some years are better and some years are worse.
Betting on your favorite teams or players in the case of some propositions is one of the biggest traps that amateur bettors fall into when betting sports. Sure, we can understand the appeal of betting on your favorite team, kicking back and rooting them on, but if you’re trying to win money at sports betting, this is far from optimal. Not only is wagering disproportionally on your favorite teams a –EV decision, but it’s also an area where bettors are missing an important edge because of their bias.

Two Eastern Conference teams fighting to remain in the thick of the postseason bracket square off tonight at Barclays Center. Detroit is in Brooklyn for a 7:30 p.m. ET Monday night affair. The Pistons have surpassed Brooklyn in the East playoff standings off an impressive 131-108 rout of the Chicago Bulls on Sunday. was the fifth straight victory for the Pistons and their 12th in the last 14 games. Brooklyn has done their best to keep pace with Detroit winning three straight.
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When you combine the number of opportunities to make good bets with the fact that baseball is mostly a moneyline betting sports, thanks to its low-scoring games, the odds for the bettor only increase. Betting against spreads is much harder to predict and analyze for value, but choosing a winner is more straightforward, and it’s easier to gain an edge and make solid bets.
It‘s amazing that many of us run or work within successful businesses backed by good ethics and a sound money management theory, but refuse to use these same techniques when it comes to sports betting money management. Would you bet 25 percent of your retirement fund on a single stock that had a 40 percent chance of going in the tank tomorrow? Would you invest in a real estate development under the same scenario? Nobody would do either of these propositions, yet many people are willing to bet 20 to 30 percent of their betting resources a single game. The books know that most of us lack discipline and that greed, sooner or later, will get the best of the gambler and that some early returns for the bettor will likely eventually swing to big profits for the bookmaker.
This all involves placing bets on a large number of games. This is the safest way to generate consistent money betting on sports. By spreading your risk over many games, you diversify your bankroll and investments. Your positive expectation can take over in the long run. Short term fluctuations won't make much difference. Your risk of ruin (chances of going broke) are minimal.

These recreational bettors account for the majority of people who bet on sports, but there are also plenty of people who bet primarily to make money. This doesn’t mean that they don’t still enjoy themselves, it’s just that their motivations are different. They generally put a lot more thought into the wagers that they make, and dedicate some time to researching and analyzing the various factors that can affect the outcome of games and events.


Against the spread (described as ATS in our table) and indicates the win based on picks that are made to conflict with the spread. When it comes to making bets, the spread is the number oddsmakers use to give people other wagering options besides wins and losses. A spread in Italy Serie A is like .5 or 1.5 and suggests that one club would need to lose the match by 1 or 2 goals or the other club would have to win by that same amount. If neither happens, your bet won’t cover the spread and you won’t win your bet. 
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