By giving all of your focus to a single sport and doing your due diligence, you can find great value on lines on a regular basis. Remember that public perception factors into the making of point spreads and moneylines as well; if you are way ahead of the public in terms of knowledge on a specific sport, you can spot lines that the average bettor might not.
When a bookie sets odds for games, he will build what bookies call an “over round” into his set of odds. Another slang term used for this formula is “the juice.” For the sake of simplicity, let’s look at a boxing match where both contenders are equally talented, of equal stature, etc. Since they both have an equal chance of winning, a casual bet may be even money. You put $20 on one guy; your friend puts $20 on the other. Whichever fighter wins awards the bettor with the total of $40.
Believe it or not, some people really do bet on sports for a living. Maybe they work part time at a sportsbook or in some other marginal job in the casino industry, but there is a group of gamblers who bet on sports for their life’s work. With all the math swirling around in our heads after the last bit of the article, it’s hard to imagine anyone wanting to do this for a living.
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Against the spread (described as ATS in our table) and indicates the win based on picks that are made to conflict with the spread. When it comes to making bets, the spread is the number oddsmakers use to give people other wagering options besides wins and losses. A spread in Italy Serie A is like .5 or 1.5 and suggests that one club would need to lose the match by 1 or 2 goals or the other club would have to win by that same amount. If neither happens, your bet won’t cover the spread and you won’t win your bet.
There are two key words in sportsbook – information and strategy. Based on information the bookmakers estimate the probabilities of the outcomes of the betting events (e.g. win or loss of a home team, a tie etc.) and offer corresponding odds. Information is important for a better as well to draw a line between good and bad odds. The odds are the main indicator! We will learn how to use it by way of the example below.
Before I delve into rigorous explanations of how a bettor can gain an advantage against the point spread, it is important to understand what the spread actually represents. Point spreads were invented to keep bettors interested in games between teams of different talent levels – if a perennial powerhouse like Alabama plays a mid level team such as South Alabama, you’ll find very few people willing to bet on which team will win the game since Bama would be such a prohibitive favorite. However, most are willing to bet on whether Alabama will ‘cover the point spread’ and win by a certain number of points. If the point spread is 21.5, then the Crimson Tide must win by 22 or more points for their side of the bet to cover, while South Alabama must either win outright or lose by 21 points or less to cover their side. Point spreads are designed so that the probability of each outcome is roughly equal, and are generally set so as to approximate the median score differential between the two teams at the given site of the game.
Levante are the feel good story in Europe, and there’s no good reason to stop believing at this point. AccuScore calculates value on both the draw and a Levante win, so a split pick is the correct play on this one. Regardless of whether Levante win or draw, the pick would be profitable. The trends aren’t with this pick, but Levante has surprised us all this season. If Levante lose, however, Barcelona and Real Madrid will likely return to the top and Levante will be the forgotten story of the season.
“The chorus of human stories we present in ‘Action’ will resonate far beyond the world of sports and gambling,” director Luke Korem says. “This is a subculture that reflects to an extreme the risk, reward, and uncertainty we find in our everyday lives. I’m thrilled that Showtime is allowing us to capture these stories at such a unique moment in history.”
For sports bettors, the vig is more expensive than the spreads on a typical Wall Street stock trade. But the growth of online betting—mostly illegal in the U.S.—has started to shrink the vig below 10% in some places, which should eventually make betting a better deal for bettors. That’s what you’d expect, says Toby Moskowitz, a professor of finance at the Yale School of Management and one of the principals with the $226 billion hedge fund manager AQR Capital Management.
Professional sports bettors have to worry about variance more than any other type of gambler. Working against the forces of variance means managing your bankroll over the course of the season to avoid the negative possibilities that could totally empty your wagering account. Professional sports bettors have the time and resources necessary to calculate these variances, and there are even a few pieces of software out there that can help you figure out your ideal bet in the face of negative variance. But the bottom line is that professional sports bettors would dream of having a 55% winning record, simply because it guarantees you’re beating the house.
Notably, Delegate Marcus Simon also spoke of introducing his own sports betting bill early in the 2019 legislative session that would aim to legalize the activity by July of next year. When he spoke of the potential legislation in October, Simon alluded to racetracks and off-track betting parlors as potential sites for brick-and-mortar sportsbooks.
These recreational bettors account for the majority of people who bet on sports, but there are also plenty of people who bet primarily to make money. This doesn’t mean that they don’t still enjoy themselves, it’s just that their motivations are different. They generally put a lot more thought into the wagers that they make, and dedicate some time to researching and analyzing the various factors that can affect the outcome of games and events.
Reason number two that the bookie wins: He “charges” people to bet. The odds that he offers don’t add up to an implied probability of 100%, the remainder being potential profit for the bookie (known as the “vig” in the US). Depending on the event he might be charging a couple of percentage points (so on average he’ll make $2 for each $100 bet) to a couple of hundred percentage points (so on average he’ll make $200 for each $100 bet). It depends on his certainty around his estimate, how dodgy he is, how dumb he thinks his punters are, how much competition he has, and so on.
There are a couple of stakes, even graded stakes, run at these tracks, yet most of their races are claimers and lower level allowances featuring the same horses in regular intervals. The racing secretaries generally write the conditions around the horses stabled at the track. You will find a lot of conditioned claiming races, like races for non-winners of a number of races in the last year or six months, or optional claiming races. Understanding how these conditions are written is the key to winning these races.
The first advantage here is a significant one. If you devote all your time to one single sport, it’s entirely possible that you can become a genuine expert. This will greatly improve your chances of beating the bookmakers. Remember, they have experts working for them. You really need to match the knowledge of their experts to be able to win money consistently. If you can actually learn MORE than them, then you’ll be in a good position to beat them.
If you’re not familiar with the ins and outs of the game, it’s best to start with a simple bet, such as looking over an entry list of players with odds and selecting one to win. Or, picking a player in a head-to-head match. Once you get to know the sport, there are a variety of more complicated bets offered. One that’s popular is to bet the over/under on the number of times a player gets 180 (the highest score possible with three darts) in a match, or who will be the first player in a match to get a 180.
It‘s amazing that many of us run or work within successful businesses backed by good ethics and a sound money management theory, but refuse to use these same techniques when it comes to sports betting money management. Would you bet 25 percent of your retirement fund on a single stock that had a 40 percent chance of going in the tank tomorrow? Would you invest in a real estate development under the same scenario? Nobody would do either of these propositions, yet many people are willing to bet 20 to 30 percent of their betting resources a single game. The books know that most of us lack discipline and that greed, sooner or later, will get the best of the gambler and that some early returns for the bettor will likely eventually swing to big profits for the bookmaker.
Like every successful bettor, we’re looking for inefficiencies in betting markets which pop up regularly with the sheer volume of games being played day in day out. Niels, our model maker, first identifies value bets through his xG (expected goals model) then we move on to an in-depth look at some situational statistics plus team news. Once we feel confident that the odds are stacked in our favor, we pull the trigger