So how difficult is sports betting math? The math behind placing a winning bet is fairly complicated, but the way to stay ahead of the bookmaker is rather straightforward. If you collect on 52.4% of your bets, you’ll break even. We’ll have more details on that number later, including why it takes more than 50% wins to break even, but first some general knowledge about sports gambling and the numbers behind it.
We’re not saying to just make a decision without putting any thought into it. Take everything we said into consideration, but don’t stress out. All that really matters is that you enjoy yourself, and gamble responsibly with money you can afford to lose. It makes sense to start by focusing on any sports you already follow, but don’t be afraid to try out others at some point. If you don’t follow any sports, start with the popular ones and see how it goes from there. Once you get a hang of it, you might want to try a couple of the more obscure sports.
Multi-bets. Parlays. Teasers. Whatever you like to call them, know when to bet them and when not to. Sure they offer the promise of the big score, the big pay day, but unless you have done your analysis and have located true value, they are a terrible way to bet. Look at it this way. If you place a multi-bet of 4 legs, and you were getting full price even money odds of 2.00 for each leg, the odds for that multi would be 16.00. Now lets look at a real world example where you're being offered lets say 1.90 for 'even money' with the bookmaker taking out 5%: the odds for that same 4 leg multi would be just 13.00. That's taking out close to 19% of the full price of that bet.
You plan on betting on 160 games during your investment period. You dream of a 55% winning record because your win-loss with a 55% winning record would give you an 88-72 record. That’s an expected profit of +8.8 units. How did we get to that number? To calculate your units, subtract the total of your losses (multiplied by 1.1 to include the vig) from your wins and you’ll get your unit profit.
On June 11, 2018, New Jersey became the third state to legalize sports betting, after Nevada and Delaware, with Gov. Phil Murphy signing the legislation into law. Sports betting in New Jersey began when a sportsbook opened at Monmouth Park Racetrack on June 14, 2018. Following this, sportsbooks opened at the casinos in Atlantic City and at Meadowlands Racetrack.
Future wagers. While all sports wagers are by definition on future events, bets listed as "futures" generally have a long-term horizon measured in weeks or months; for example, a bet that a certain NFL team will win the Super Bowl for the upcoming season. Such a bet must be made before the season starts in September, and winning bets will not pay off until the conclusion of the Super Bowl in January or February (although many of the losing bets will be clear well before then and can be closed out by the book). Odds for such a bet generally are expressed in a ratio of units paid to unit wagered. The team wagered upon might be 50-1 to win the Super Bowl, which means that the bet will pay 50 times the amount wagered if the team does so. In general, most sports books will prefer this type of wager due to the low win-probability, and also the longer period of time in which the house holds the player's money while the bet is pending.
There are 68 teams that participate in March Madness, and there’s a whole lot of betting that includes bracket betting, standard bets, in-play betting, and lots of props. We’ve included the schedule, which starts with Selection Sunday on March 11 and end with the final game on April 2. That just so happens to be right around the same time the MLB tosses out its opening day pitches.
Perhaps you’ve heard of the Super Bowl? If not then you should know that it is one of the biggest annual betting events. American football is like a religion in North America. It hasn’t been as globally accepted as other sports but its popularity is growing. The NFL is the most well-known American football league there is but NCAA college football, the Canadian Football League, and a couple other smaller leagues have large followings and bookmakers take a lot of bets on them, so you will never run out of markets to bet. A fresh list of betting lines is usually up every Sunday night during football season and punters can’t wait to get their bets in.
Critical. If you don't understand betting value, walk away. Sure you might be certain that a favourite at odds of 1.45 is going to win, but are the odds being offered giving any value? Plenty of times I've heard casual gamblers say "There's no way this team is going to lose this game." Well they might be legitimate favourites, but is the probability of them winning better than the odds being offered? Betting with this frame of mind is a little like saying an over-priced $2000 wide-screen TV was good value just because you really really really wanted it.
Under no circumstances do we advise using a local bookie. The reason is two-fold. The first being that you would be breaking state law and put yourself and that bookie in legal trouble. The second being that your money isn’t very secure with them. With offshore betting sites, you have the security of knowing that they are regulated in their home country and that they offer 24/7 customer support via phone and online.
Betting on football matches is becoming more popular year on year, with a growing number of online bookmakers available to bet with. With football one of the world’s most popular sports, it is little surprise to see so much money is bet on the biggest games every day, with popular football betting markets including accumulators, both teams to score (BTTS) and goalscorer markets.
CG Technologies is the only option for entity group formation and execution. They are the center of the application process to get things moving through the state and for their managed sports books to accept and review investment groups detailed information. Other sports books could eventually join in the experiment but most are weary of the red tape and short-sighted regulations that make things difficult.
The sports books line is flawed if it does not attract the same action amount on both sides. From a smart handicapper’s point of view, the line is flawed when it does not compute to his predicted outcome of the game. A weaker team can actually become the favorite if public sentiment is with that team. When this happens the underdog presents a huge overlay for the seasoned handicapper tilting the odds in his favor. This is the contrarian principle and why many smart handicappers go against the general betting public.
My long term percentage on College Football Best Bets is 56% (1290-1017-40 over 29 years) and the new NFL play-by play model was 100-69 (59.2%) in 2016. However, despite being a combined 148-107 (58.0%) on Football Best Bets, college and NFL, in 2016, I will continue to use 55% winners as a realistic goal going forward. If I expect 55% on 200 Football Best Bets (I had 255 last year, which was higher than expected) then the expected profit at -110 odds would be 200 x (0.55 – (1.1 x 0.45), which is +11.0 units (or +22.0 Stars if my average Best Bet is rated 2-Stars). The Kelly Criterion recommends a wager of 3.4% of your bankroll for a wager with a 55% chance of winning and odds of -110. However, the Kelly formula assumes sequential betting and sports betting usually involves simultaneous betting, which is part of the reason behind using some fraction of full Kelly to reduce risk. If I play 2.0% of my initial bankroll per bet, or 1.0% per Star, (i.e. flat betting) then my expected return during football season (5 months) is 22.0%. Adjusting your bankroll after each week rather than flat betting will increase your expected return, as explained in the KC simulation section of my money management section.
It might not be the most physical pursuit but snooker involves a lot of skill and the steadiest of hands. You may be surprised to know that professional snooker players stand to make millions of dollars over the course of a career. Compared to some other more sports, snooker has a much smaller following. This obviously carries over to the sportsbooks in that they see much less betting action on snooker as they do with football or rugby. Nonetheless, almost every bookie worth their salt offers this game for betting. The best snooker bookmakers make sure that you won’t have to miss out on any betting opportunities. Match betting, correct scores, total frames, and spread bets are just scratching the surface. Aside from picking outright winners in tournaments, punters can usually pick from 20 or 30 propositions on any match. When you pick the right bookie you can also watch live snooker streams and participate in live betting. As always, there is a treasure trove of free bets, money back promotions, and other betting incentives that will give you a leg up on your bookie.
If we haven’t stressed it enough throughout our site, we’ll do it again here. Choosing a reputable sportsbook with a long history of paying players on time is absolutely crucial. There is no use betting sports online unless you can be almost certain that you will be paid if you win. We offer a wealth of information on this topic, including an extensive list of scam sportsbooks that are still operating. There’s no reason to risk using poorly reviewed sites when there are tons of options that offer excellent odds and payout quickly.
As the name suggests long-term bets spread over a longer period of time. If you like, you could call them the opposite of live bets. Long-term bets are offered for all possible sports, whether it's football, tennis, basketball, ice hockey, Formula 1 or winter sports. The bet is used for longer, season spreading formats - therefore the name. Popular examples would be EURO or World Cup qualifications or final rounds, leagues, cup competitions or other tournaments. The classic long-term bet aims at betting on the winner of the chosen format/competition. Therefore one often speaks of championship bets in football or other sports. For example you can bet on who will win the German Bundesliga, the Premier League, but also tournaments like the Chmapions League or the DFB Cup. A long-term bet in tennis for example would be betting on the winner of a certain Grand Slam tournament like Wimbledon. This principle works analogically for all other sports: Who will be Formula 1 world champion? Who will win the biathlon total world cup? Long-term bets are usually placed before the season starts or before the championship or the respective tournament kicks off, because then you get the best odds. Of course you can also place them in the course of a certain competition. You can for example bet on the final winner in the semi final. Then four teams or players are still left to choose. Remember: Bookmakers react to the intermediate result and adapt the odds accordingly. The profit calculation works as usual: The betting stakes are multiplied by the betting odds. An example for a long-term bet, where you bet on the winner of a competition would be a tip on the winner of the total world cup in Alpine skiing:
When there IS some value in their odds and lines, there are so many other people betting on these sports that it soon disappears. A good price will see lots of money coming in very quickly, and when that happens the bookmakers adjust their odds and lines accordingly. So unless we’re also very quick, we can easily miss out on the best opportunities.
Of course, as in any game of chance, there is variability in the actual results and just because you have won 55% in the past and expect to win 55% in the future doesn’t mean that you’re going to win 55% this upcoming season. There is variance in sports betting, as there is in most investments, and I calculate the standard deviation to figure out how much of my bankroll I can safely wager on each game during the season to accommodate potential negative swings while having very little chance of exhausting my bankroll. I have extensively quantified the variance that exists in sports betting, and use mathematical formulas to dictate the exact optimal amount to invest so as to maximize the ratio of profits to variance.
Many times you and a group of friends can get overly competitive when it comes to sports, and this may lead to forming sports pools. Folks should know that this is a completely safe form of legal sports betting. As long as the commissioner or the person handling the pot doesn’t get a cut of the winnings, and you don’t advertise the public to join, you should be well within your legal grounds to form such a pool. Offshore sports betting sites also have great referral programs and contests that you and a friend can join.
Since legal Arizona sports betting isn’t officially mentioned in the law, residents who place wagers online should go by the age restrictions of other gambling activities in the state. While the lotto only requires customers to be 18 or older, casinos in the state only accept patrons that are 21 or older. It is always advised to go by the highest age required by the state in order to minimize any risk that goes into online gambling.
When it comes to sports betting in the U.S., there’s a lot happening from mid-January through to May. Although many sports bettors feel that after the college football championship game and Super Bowl are over, that they’re simply waiting for NFL and NCAA football to start once again. But the fact is there’s more sports betting opportunities from January through to August than any other time and this is primetime for real cash sports betting.