You are much better off from a bookmaker's business point of view just hiring a load of mathematically competent and cheap worker drones to copy Betfair/Pinnacle/Wider industry prices, build a few algorithms for in play betting and very closely manage the liabilities as the bets come in. Then just restrict all winners/arbers as quickly as you can and you have a profitable business with virtually no grasp of what a sport price even is.
Most people think that sports betting is about finding ‘sure things,’ but in reality such ‘locks’ are nothing more than gamblers’ fancy. Just as in real estate, currency, stocks, or any other speculative market, ‘sure things’ simply do not exist. As a professional sports bettor, my goal is to find and exploit many small edges over a long period of time to earn a compounding return. Winning 55% of games is very significant, and with very conservative bet sizing, you can grow your return very quickly. Investing $10,000 into the stock market for a year and earning a 10% return is considered a great investment – but your return winning a modest 54% of your sports bets would trounce that return.
As in the stock market, sports bettors suffer from psychological tendencies that create value and momentum opportunities. In the main, investors and sports bettors overreact to new information, such as a stock’s recent price moves or a team’s spell of bad-luck losses. “People tend to think that recent performance is a better predictor of the next game’s performance,” he says, “when, in reality, the long-term quality of the team is a much better indicator.”
In considering golf wagering for the future and the potential impact of ‘integrity fees’, how will the PGA handle these types of situations with a royalty being collected by the PGA for all the golf wagering during their tournaments? The PGA issued a statement on regulation saying that it’s the most effective way of “ensuring integrity in competition, protecting consumers, engaging fans and generating revenue for government, operators and leagues.”
Here's a crude MS Paint Line Graph (below) to explain kind of what I'm talking about. The difference in odds between favorite and underdog will always be there. Nearly all of the time, other books will have similar, if not, identical odds. When you allow the lines to move and shift, once the underdog line (or vice versa) passes the initial plane of the favorite line, you'll be guaranteed a profit.
Here is what a professional baseball bettor might do in his head. After looking over statistics from MLB (kept religiously by all sorts of bloggers, data archives, and magazines) between the years 2000-2010, he notices a particular statistic pop out. For example: when the home team starts a left-handed pitcher the day after a loss, that team wins 59% of the time. Good sports bettors can do this sort of math in their head or very quickly on paper. From that bit of information comes a new betting theory—look for game situations that mirror the above example and bet on them. That means he’ll only bet games where the home team starts a left-handed pitcher the day after a loss. Does he just jump in and start betting based on this back of the napkin math? No way. More statistical analysis is required—he may find that this was a fluke for that particular decade and isn’t a trustworthy statistics, or he may find an even more advantageous bet based on his original theory.
Future wagers. While all sports wagers are by definition on future events, bets listed as "futures" generally have a long-term horizon measured in weeks or months; for example, a bet that a certain NFL team will win the Super Bowl for the upcoming season. Such a bet must be made before the season starts in September, and winning bets will not pay off until the conclusion of the Super Bowl in January or February (although many of the losing bets will be clear well before then and can be closed out by the book). Odds for such a bet generally are expressed in a ratio of units paid to unit wagered. The team wagered upon might be 50-1 to win the Super Bowl, which means that the bet will pay 50 times the amount wagered if the team does so. In general, most sports books will prefer this type of wager due to the low win-probability, and also the longer period of time in which the house holds the player's money while the bet is pending.
Football is the most popular sport on Earth and bookmakers take an incredible number of bets on it every year. Almost all bookies offer 24-hour live soccer betting but some do a better job than others when it comes to giving punters the full package. The very best football betting sites post great odds on a huge variety of soccer markets and have regular promotions such as bore draw and other cashback bonuses. For example, if there is a football match being played anywhere then Paddy Power will certainly be offering all sorts of profitable betting opportunities on it. They also have their “2 Up – You Win” promotion that is specifically geared towards football bettors. If the team you bet on takes a two-goal lead at any point in the game then you automatically win. What a great deal for football fans!!
The second part of this tips is “Don’t Go on Tilt”. Going on tilt or “tilting” is a commonly referred to term with poker players and basically means letting your emotions take over, which often leads to bad decisions. If you are angry or upset at something, such as a couple bad beats with your sports bets, you shouldn’t be placing any more bets. Take a break, go for a walk, get your mind clear before you start making anymore sports betting picks.
Anything I can make guaranteed profit on. It is a Catch 22 though. The bigger leagues (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL) have more people wagering on them, so the odds of finding lines that differ between sports books is tougher. This is because the betting line only moves when too many people are wagering on 1 side. A $100 will have little to no impact on a Super Bowl line that already has millions in the pot. As long as Vegas has close to equal action on each side, they profit every time. The lesser known sports, have less money wagered on each game, so it's easier to spot vastly different lines between different sports books.
The best part about sports betting is that you always have the potential to make some money. Regardless of the size of your bet, you always have the ability to win, which not only feels great but puts a little extra padding into your wallet. This money making does not have to stop with just making a few extra bucks here and there. A lot of people have trained themselves to become professional sports bettors. They have learned how to sift through stats with a keen eye for making correct picks. If you are good at predicting how games are decided, sports betting may be for you.
While the odds makers do to try approximate the median margin of victory between two teams, they also try to reduce their exposure to risk by setting lines such that the public money will fall evenly on both sides of a game, so that they can offset the bets against each other and earn a profit on the juice (cut of winnings taken by the house, explained below) without exposing themselves to large potential losses. Thus, odds makers are often in the business of gauging public perception rather than team performance, and therefore the betting public actually sets the line. In more recent years, the betting public has had less influence on the odds than professional betting syndicates or sharp money has had, but there is still value to be found – although in different ways than in previous decades. If Georgia is 4 points better than Georgia Tech according to my advanced metrics and analysis, but the aggregate public perception is that Georgia is 7 points better than Georgia Tech, then the posted point spread is likely to be closer to 6 or 7 points (public perception) than it will be to 4 points (the realistic difference between the teams). This makes my job as a professional handicapper much less daunting; not only can I exploit lines where the odds makers are off, but I can also exploit the uniformed opinions of the general betting public, and more recently take advantage of betting syndicates and ‘quants’ that rely more and more on algorithms but can overlook some of the hidden value in changes in team personnel or lineups and in the particular match up between two teams.
The easiest way to demonstrate the math behind a sports bet is to make up an example. Let’s say you and your buddy walk into a casino, each with $200 burning a hole in your pocket. There’s a big game on tonight, the Cowboys and the Redskins, so you wander into the sportsbook to check up on the latest news about the game. While you’re sitting there, you see the wagering board, with some funny numbers on it. It looks like this:
West Virginia and Marshall both argued in favor of receiving a small integrity fee when the state of West Virginia debated sports betting, but the final bill did not include any such royalties for schools or professional sports leagues. According to an ESPN.com report, universities including Connecticut, Rutgers, and Missouri have also met with representatives from professional leagues to discuss whether they might be able to receive an integrity fee. So far, no state sports betting legislation has passed while including such payments.
Allow me to repeat it’s 100% Risk-Free, and unless you do careless mistake it gives you an Instant Guaranteed Profit. Just sign-up William Hill account and bet £10 (your own money) and get £30 Free Bet. You will finally extract around £25 genuine profit while collecting your original £10 back from this sign-up deal. All work will be pretty much like this, so very easy bets to win money. Once you get familiar with how it works, it takes less than 5 minutes for the entire process. Even your bookmaker’s account is eventually gubbed, you will lose nothing and you will have been able to rake enough money by the time all your accounts are gubbed. And, you can still keep making money from the restricted account by following the above guide. It’s worth doing.
For once I am very happy about how a round turned out from a betting perspective at this edition of the World Cup. Sweden wasn't up to the task of facing England, and Belgium came through with the milder-than-the public-perceived upset at the big price, so we wound up with a nice profit. Even the other two games didn't bother me too much even though they both ended up as losses. Croatia won as I hoped, but it just took them too long to do it. And Uruguay just didn't show up against France, which happens in soccer frustratingly often. Read More >>
It’s a leading bookmaker in Asia and has some of the highest limits in the industry. By far the highest between Asian operators while providing some of the best odds available online. It offers amazing Asian Handicap Betting odds to add for the thrill and excitement of conventional fixed odds betting, by eliminating the possibility of the draw outcome.
Other popular sports for betting that are NOT on this list include baseball, darts, rugby and horse racing. We didn’t include baseball because that doesn’t get a lot of betting attention outside of the United States. Darts doesn’t get much attention outside of the United Kingdom, and rugby is only popular in a few countries. Horse racing DOES get worldwide attention, but horse racing betting is typically categorized as its own unique form of gambling.
“When markets become more competitive, prices fall,” says Moskowitz, who was rooting for perennial disappointment England in last Wednesday’s match, because one side of his family is English. He’s typically more hard-headed when he thinks about sports, as shown in the 2011 bestseller “Scorecasting” that he co-authored with Sports Illustrated writer Jon Wertheim, applying economic analysis to sports. A popular working paper by Moskowitz studied sports betting markets for the asset pricing anomalies that we know and love in financial markets.
If you put $5,000 into a bank savings account and let it draw interest for a year, you could expect to make about $100 to $150. (I think even two or three percent is unlikely these days, but we’ll use this as an example) But many of us get very greedy when using that same $5000 to bet sports and feel that a $1000 or $2000 seasonal profit is unacceptable. Yet this is roughly 10 times what you would have made by putting the same amount of money it into the bank and, personally, I don’t know of too many investment advisors, individual stocks, ETFs, bonds, or mutual funds that can make you a consistent 15 -30 percent each year, do you?
Ray Wallin is a licensed civil engineer and part-time handicapper who has had a presence on the Web since 2000 for various sports and horse racing websites and through his personal blog. Introduced to the sport over the course of a misspent teenage summer at Monmouth Park by his Uncle Dutch, a professional gambler, he quickly fell in love with racing and has been handicapping for over 25 years.
Where you see “Total O/U” (sometimes called totals betting), this is the amount won on OVER or UNDER picks. For Lega Serie A, the OVER/UNDER is anything that will affect the outcome of the match like injuries (real injuries that occur prior to a game), weather conditions (heat and wind will play major factors in the game’s outcome), and how good or bad each club is offensively and defensively.