In Asian betting markets, other frequently used formats for expressing odds include Hong Kong, Malaysian, and Indonesian-style odds formats. Odds are also quite often expressed in terms of implied probability, which corresponds to the probability with which the event in question would need to occur for the bet to be a break-even proposition (on the average).
Touts often claim to be able to hit 60% or higher, but as I explain in my essay on Bayesian Probability, anyone who tells you that their long term expected winning percentage is higher than 60% is deluding themselves. Ten or more years ago a sharp handicapper could win about 60% long term but those days are over, as odds makers have become more savvy in the past decade or so. For a bettor to claim a greater than 60% long term expected win percentage, that would be mean that Vegas would have to consistently release lines with egregious errors, and that simply just does not happen often enough nowadays for claims of a greater than 60% long term expected win percentage. Any short term win rates of around 60% or higher are simply due to blind, short-term luck. For instance, last year (2016) in the first season using a new NFL play-by-play model, Dr. Bob Sports’ NFL Best Bet sides were an incredible 66-26 (71.7%), but that record was enhanced by winning a very large percentage of close games (31-12 on Best Bets decided by 7 points or less) rather than splitting the close ones. It still would have been a great season on NFL Best Bet sides (62%) if the close games had been 50% but I still can’t expect the new model to win 60%-plus on sides based on that one season – although the play-by-play model back-tested at a very profitable 56% winners.
Let’s examine, if people can make a living sports living of matched betting. Probably the best way to examine is using Profit Accumulator (PA) case. PA is one of the most popular matched betting paid service with over 20,000 members in the UK. The members’ average monthly income from the matched betting is said to be around £1,000. See Profit Accumulator Full Review – Should We Believe 20,000 members’ Eaning Claim? for full details;
If you are looking to actually become a success at sports betting, we absolutely recommend you only start once you have enough of a bankroll to survive some pretty bad variance and enough living money for at least a few months. It’s either this or working another job to pay your daily costs while you build up your betting bankroll, but given how tiresome betting can become, working another job and successfully betting sports may be quite difficult.
These recreational bettors account for the majority of people who bet on sports, but there are also plenty of people who bet primarily to make money. This doesn’t mean that they don’t still enjoy themselves, it’s just that their motivations are different. They generally put a lot more thought into the wagers that they make, and dedicate some time to researching and analyzing the various factors that can affect the outcome of games and events.
Here is what a professional baseball bettor might do in his head. After looking over statistics from MLB (kept religiously by all sorts of bloggers, data archives, and magazines) between the years 2000-2010, he notices a particular statistic pop out. For example: when the home team starts a left-handed pitcher the day after a loss, that team wins 59% of the time. Good sports bettors can do this sort of math in their head or very quickly on paper. From that bit of information comes a new betting theory—look for game situations that mirror the above example and bet on them. That means he’ll only bet games where the home team starts a left-handed pitcher the day after a loss. Does he just jump in and start betting based on this back of the napkin math? No way. More statistical analysis is required—he may find that this was a fluke for that particular decade and isn’t a trustworthy statistics, or he may find an even more advantageous bet based on his original theory.