For sports bettors, the vig is more expensive than the spreads on a typical Wall Street stock trade. But the growth of online betting—mostly illegal in the U.S.—has started to shrink the vig below 10% in some places, which should eventually make betting a better deal for bettors. That’s what you’d expect, says Toby Moskowitz, a professor of finance at the Yale School of Management and one of the principals with the $226 billion hedge fund manager AQR Capital Management.
Major League Baseball (MLB) Commissioner Rob Manfred has also advocated the league changing its stance on sports betting, with both Manfred and Silver noting that the scale of illegal sports betting makes opposition to betting meaningless. He also stated a willingness to "try to shape" any future legislation at federal level. This was noted as a marked contrast to former Commissioner of the MLB Bud Selig, with Manfred going beyond tacit approval and stating, "There is this buzz out there in terms of people feeling that there may be an opportunity here for additional legalized sports betting."
Before deciding if you should pay for picks, you should determine your betting style. Determining your betting style will let you know if you need to pay an expert for your picks. Are you the type of bettor that likes to crunch a ton of numbers, sift through all the trends and get all the relevant team news on coaches, players, injuries, and off-field transgressions? Do you understand line movements and how to manage your money to ensure you get a maximum return on investment (ROI) from sports betting? If so, then buying picks doesn’t make sense since you’ll be basically paying for a professional handicapper to tell you what you already know. On the other hand, if you’re the type of bettor that doesn’t follow trends or wants to deal with line movements, then purchasing picks could be what takes you from being a betting novice to a pro sports wagerist. Or, and let’s face it, some people simply don’t have the time to look at every stat and break down every game. Why not get an expert’s opinion to help you out?
Sportsbooks are huge for Vegas casinos, bringing in $136.3 Million in 2009. The only games which brought in more money were 3 card poker, roulette, craps, baccarat, blackjack, and slot machines. It seems as bettors do well with sports betting as the casino only has a 5.31% win percentage, compared to 11.31% for blackjack, and 12.04% for all table games.
The many different games and ways to bet on them offer bettors a wider pool of options to find their edge. Understanding of a particular game or genre of games can give you an edge when betting against outcomes. If you can find a specialty within esports and learn to make consistently smart and valuable bets on it, you stand to make some serious dough.
As the name suggests long-term bets spread over a longer period of time. If you like, you could call them the opposite of live bets. Long-term bets are offered for all possible sports, whether it's football, tennis, basketball, ice hockey, Formula 1 or winter sports. The bet is used for longer, season spreading formats - therefore the name. Popular examples would be EURO or World Cup qualifications or final rounds, leagues, cup competitions or other tournaments. The classic long-term bet aims at betting on the winner of the chosen format/competition. Therefore one often speaks of championship bets in football or other sports. For example you can bet on who will win the German Bundesliga, the Premier League, but also tournaments like the Chmapions League or the DFB Cup. A long-term bet in tennis for example would be betting on the winner of a certain Grand Slam tournament like Wimbledon. This principle works analogically for all other sports: Who will be Formula 1 world champion? Who will win the biathlon total world cup? Long-term bets are usually placed before the season starts or before the championship or the respective tournament kicks off, because then you get the best odds. Of course you can also place them in the course of a certain competition. You can for example bet on the final winner in the semi final. Then four teams or players are still left to choose. Remember: Bookmakers react to the intermediate result and adapt the odds accordingly. The profit calculation works as usual: The betting stakes are multiplied by the betting odds. An example for a long-term bet, where you bet on the winner of a competition would be a tip on the winner of the total world cup in Alpine skiing:
However, skewed public perception, results-oriented analysis, and unsound metrics result in point spreads that are often biased one way or another. While the casual bettor does not possess the capacity to exploit these advantages, I have used mathematical models, situational analysis, significant trends and quantitative player analysis that are far more complex and accurate than anything else on the market to gain an advantage, which is why I have won 53% to 56% of my Best Bets (depending on the sport) over the last 29 years.
Let me put what we have reviewed in this way; The bookmakers have edge of built-in margin but unlike casino where pure mathematics governs, the sports betting is pretty much skill oriented game thus successful Software / Tipsters (Handicappers) / Systems turn their edge into ours. They can identify a True Value Bet in the form of UNDER-ROUND in the selected sports category where they have absolute skill edge. These will result in Positive EV (Expected Value) that’s a mathematical formula to allow you achieve average long-term profit. This +EV will be translated into the additional winning rate to 57%. For further details of EV and its rationale, you may want to read the one I introduced at the beginning, especially Value Bet section;
The 1st concern is the compounding & stake limit. Just don’t take literally on the compound part. If follow the above process with compound mechanics and increase your bankroll to $20,000 after 1 year, your each bet would become over $1,000 (5% of total bankroll) and exponentially increase afterwards. In practice you will find no bookmakers that can keep accepting such high-rollers’ bet except a few.
So what is the best theory on money management? There are several methods that have proven successful by many professional gamblers. In speaking to most of these individuals, discipline being the main ingredient. I personally believe that one should never bet more than 20 percent of their season bankroll on any given week. An example would be if a gambler starts with a seasonal bankroll of $5,000. Thus, they will have $1000 (20 percent of your bankroll) to bet with on opening week. If we were to release eight football picks on the first week it would look like this:
There are two main reasons why people choose to bet on sports. A lot of people are what are known as recreational bettors, and they bet primarily for fun. They obviously want to win money if they can (who doesn’t?), but that isn’t what really motivates them. They don’t put any real effort into making good betting decisions, and they don’t take things very seriously. Betting is basically just a form of entertainment for them, and they enjoy it because it makes watching their favorite sports that much more exciting. They also enjoy the challenge of putting their sports knowledge to the test.
All these competitions mean more to some teams than others, so before you start placing bets on Man City against a fifth division team in the FA Cup, be sure to check their lineup to see who is playing. For some teams, a FA Cup match may mean the world, but for a team like Man City who usually competes at the highest levels, it may hold much less significance.
I bet on the Hamilton Tiger Cats yesterday in the CFL. Most people here probably don't follow the CFL but being Canadian, I do. Anyway, Hamilton was 4-5 on the Road. Toronto was 4-5 at Home. The bookies didn't give Hamilton much respect, so the odds were good for me to win. Hamilton paid 2.60 x my bet on a coin flip. Even odds are 1.91 / 1.91 where I bet.
The NCAA has already had to modify its own rules as states have started to offer sports betting within their borders. The statement notes that the NCAA Board of Governors suspended the current championship policy in May, which previously had not allowed championship events to be located in states that offered sports wagering. That policy, among others, may see a more permanent update in the future.
“When markets become more competitive, prices fall,” says Moskowitz, who was rooting for perennial disappointment England in last Wednesday’s match, because one side of his family is English. He’s typically more hard-headed when he thinks about sports, as shown in the 2011 bestseller “Scorecasting” that he co-authored with Sports Illustrated writer Jon Wertheim, applying economic analysis to sports. A popular working paper by Moskowitz studied sports betting markets for the asset pricing anomalies that we know and love in financial markets.
In a different study released by FDU’s PublicMind in October 2011, results showed that New Jersey voters thought legalizing sports betting in New Jersey was a good idea. Half of New Jersey voters (52%) said that they approved the idea of legalizing sports betting at Atlantic City casinos and racetracks, 31% opposed it. In addition, there was a significant gender split: a majority of men approved of the idea by a wide margin (65-21), while only 39% of women approved and 41% opposed. The October results were stable, reflecting an earlier poll in April 2011 where New Jersey voters approved the legalization of sports betting in the state by a margin of 53%-30%. However, nearly two-thirds (66%) of voters were not aware of the upcoming statewide referendum on the issue. Age proved to be a divide: voters between the ages 18 and 34 were more likely to approve of sports betting than were older voters. Dr. Woolley commented: "But... younger voters... are far less likely to vote than other voters... As always, a lot depends on who actually shows up to vote."
Its very hard to win money in long term betting. I don't suggest you quit your day job to do this. There are people that do make money long term betting but I guarantee you that they are not hanging out right now on 2p2 reading this thread. Its VERY VERY hard. I honestly think it would be easier to become a surgeon than become a professional bettor.
Sports betting appeals to the smart bettor because it does not have a fixed house edge for the casinos. Sports betting requires more skill than luck and is similar to live poker. You do not win every time but the skilled handicapper has a huge advantage over the recreational bettor. How sports betting can be a profitable investment involves an understanding of numbers, odds and sports.
As your bankroll increases (or in some cases, decreases) after each week, so will the size of your bets. Betting on sports will usually come in winning or losing steaks and this strategy allows you to bet more when you are winning and cut back when you are losing. Using this method will also allow you to never go broke since you are essentially starting out with a new bankroll and betting about 20% of that new bankroll each and every week.
Volleyball is played on a professional level by both men and women. Whether it’s on the beach or indoors, volleyball has universal appeal and is played all over the planet. There are quite a few leagues as well as international competitions and, of course, the Olympics. This means that volleyball is a main feature at the most trusted sportsbooks and punters can place all kinds of different bets and take advantage of numerous volleyball bonuses and promotions. There are plenty of free volleyball bets available with which punters can wager on matches, sets, point spreads, and totals to name a few. The best volleyball betting sites give punters good odds and full coverage of these events. You can trust Gambling Judge to bring you the latest and greatest volleyball bonuses and betting incentives.
Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports EASILY DELIVERED their 25* CBB Summit League Game of the Year last night on Purdue-Fort Wayne who defeated South Dakota by 26 points to further a RED HOT 13 of 19 (68%) CBB Sides run along with a 5 of 7 (71%) CBB Game of the Year mark! Now Frank spots ANOTHER OUTSTANDING $$ OPPORTUNITY with a 25* CBB Conference Game of the Year! DO NOT MISS OUT!
One can follow many different betting strategies with long-term bets. Above we already mentioned the classic, of betting on the winner of a certzain competition. Apart from that there are also many other options, that we want to present to you. Additionally we want to provide important and helpful tips, that are supposed to lead you to betting success.
Wow, 2018 flew by and was a great year in sports overall. We enjoyed a lot of success with the free picks here at The Sports Geek and have grown our great team of handicappers. 2019 is shaping up to be a great year with new experts joining the team and a new website to launch early in the year. We will continue to grow our Daily Fantasy Sports section of the website, which has really taken off in the last year. We are looking forward to helping you have a successful and enjoyable 2019!
Believe it or not, some people really do bet on sports for a living. Maybe they work part time at a sportsbook or in some other marginal job in the casino industry, but there is a group of gamblers who bet on sports for their life’s work. With all the math swirling around in our heads after the last bit of the article, it’s hard to imagine anyone wanting to do this for a living.
With professional teams in every major US sport, legal Arizona sports betting is surely happening all year round. From the Diamondbacks in the summer to the Cardinals in the winter, AZ residents are finding a way to cash in on their favorite team’s victories. The rest of the gambling scene is just as prevalent in the Grand Canyon state. Arizona is home to over 20 tribal casinos scattered throughout the state, each of which offers games like blackjack, poker, and slot machines.
On the flip side, I bet sports as basically a second income. I am very thankful to have a job in engineering that affords me the opportunity to bet enough to accomplish this and leaves me a safety net to lose what I put in and be okay. Just an example is for college football season this year (2018), I put in $10,000 for the regular season. I can do what I want within the season with that but will not buy back in. I also will never exceed $10,000 in bets at one time. My account will always be viewed as having $10,000 during this season because I never want to bet more because I have won and have profits. That is a common problem for gamblers and it really is difficult to avoid the thought of well I can make so much more if I bet this much more. It is 100% true that money management is the most important aspect of sports betting. If you can’t do this well, you may get into serious financial trouble at worst, and less important but still relevant, you will not be able to beat the sports books constantly or over time without understanding which bets make sense by realizing how much to bet, which lines to bet and which matchups offer the highest win and payout percentages. Most hobby betters bet based on how much they can win in a bet, a handicapper or shark bets where they are getting the best odds for their money. Maybe they don’t even believe in the team to win, but if the value makes sense, they will wager on it because it makes sense financially. So an example is you have $2000 and want to bet on at most two games. The average person would tend to bet on as many outcomes as possible but in this case would take two teams and we will say standard line of -110. What has happened is that you have really damaged your chance of making a profit on this bet. This is due to beginning each matchup with a basic, implied odds of 52.38% which means you have this % chance to win one game. This comes from the line of -110 (if it was -100 or even odds, you would have a 50% chance to win) which converts to 1.91 decimal odds. You divide 1 (one bet) by the decimal % (1/1.91) and get 52.38%. So on two games, at -110, you will have 13/5 fractional odds (just an example here) to win or 2.6 decimal odds so you should divide 1 by 2.6 which gives you 38.46% implied odds to win both bets. What would the bets pay out? Win one at $1000 with -110 (1.91 decimal odds so 1.91*1000=payout) and you get $909.09 profit from the win and a total back of $1909.09 with your bet amount returned. So maybe you can see why 2 bets wouldn’t be a great investment. If not, here’s why. Say you win just 1 of the two matchups, you get the payout of $1909.09 so you have lost money on your bets for the day. And with only a 38% chance to win (usually will be a little less maybe a little more depending on the odds and line) both bets and taking $1818.18 in profits, you are not going to beat those percentages over time which is the only thing that matters to a professional bettor. Putting all of your money on one outcome offers the best chance to win and the same payout amount so obviously you are getting a better return on your money and will have a better chance to walk away with a profit at season’s end. So this is a very simplistic example and doesn’t take into account lines or the options of taking the points for an underdog with a decent positive moneyline. Just a rule to state here: never bet more than you can afford to lose or care about losing.
Tonight in Las Vegas the West Coast Conference Semifinals take place in what is an exciting time to be in Sin City. Fans from across the west have enjoyed coming to Vegas as this has been the site of numerous conference tournaments as of late. Monday we take advantage of one team we feel is getting way too much credit in this spot. Hope you join us for this Best Bet Winner.
Touts often claim to be able to hit 60% or higher, but as I explain in my essay on Bayesian Probability, anyone who tells you that their long term expected winning percentage is higher than 60% is deluding themselves. Ten or more years ago a sharp handicapper could win about 60% long term but those days are over, as odds makers have become more savvy in the past decade or so. For a bettor to claim a greater than 60% long term expected win percentage, that would be mean that Vegas would have to consistently release lines with egregious errors, and that simply just does not happen often enough nowadays for claims of a greater than 60% long term expected win percentage. Any short term win rates of around 60% or higher are simply due to blind, short-term luck. For instance, last year (2016) in the first season using a new NFL play-by-play model, Dr. Bob Sports’ NFL Best Bet sides were an incredible 66-26 (71.7%), but that record was enhanced by winning a very large percentage of close games (31-12 on Best Bets decided by 7 points or less) rather than splitting the close ones. It still would have been a great season on NFL Best Bet sides (62%) if the close games had been 50% but I still can’t expect the new model to win 60%-plus on sides based on that one season – although the play-by-play model back-tested at a very profitable 56% winners.
When it comes to the Casino games, there is House Edge you can’t mathematically overcome. It’s the margin casino build in all through the games, and as long as the house edge exists the EV is negative. The % of the house edge depends on the game. According to The Wizard of Odds, it ranges between the lowest o.3% of Blackjack and 25% of Keno. The American Roulette is 5.6%, means if you stake $100 on Roulette you will lose average $5.6. Don’t misunderstand, always Variance comes in, thus you are not necessary to lose $5.6 every time when you bet $100 but the more you bet the closer to this number the loss will be. Say, if you stake $10,000 x 1 or $5,000 x 2, you may make a lot or lose everything, this is due to Variance. However you play $100 x 100 or $10 x 1,000 times, then you will quite likely to lose $560. That’s how mathematics of EV works.
CG Technologies is the only option for entity group formation and execution. They are the center of the application process to get things moving through the state and for their managed sports books to accept and review investment groups detailed information. Other sports books could eventually join in the experiment but most are weary of the red tape and short-sighted regulations that make things difficult.