Since betting on point spreads in the NFL is the most popular bet that people make, it is probably pretty important that you know what you are doing. The point spreads in the NFL are always alot closer then college football because you are dealing with the best of the best. You will almost never see a team favored by more then two touchdowns in the NFL, and most of the NFL point spreads are less then one touchdown. So, here is are best try at helping you understand how to read point spreads in NFL games.
No. The point spread is not a prediction of the final score, but rather is created to generate an equal amount of betting on both sides. In a perfect world, a sportsbook will get the same amount of money bet on the Rams to cover as they get on the Patriots to cover. If there is an even amount of money bet on both sides, the house is guaranteed to profit because of the juice (more on that below) placed on bets.
Oddsmakers want you to gamble on underdogs as well as favorites. They set points spreads that encourage balanced betting. They analyze the strengths and weaknesses of each team, factoring in won-loss record, strength of schedule, results against common foes, key injuries, recent performance and previous games between the teams. They also rate the value of home field advantage and consider the game day weather forecast where relevant. If they see heavy wagering on the favorite, they will increase the point spread during the week to spur more betting on the underdog. If more money is going on the underdog, the spread will decrease as game time nears.
Sports spread betting began in the United Kingdom in the late 1980s to offer an alternative form of sports wagering to traditional fixed odds, or fixed-risk, betting. With fixed odds betting, a gambler places a fixed-risk stake on stated fractional or decimal odds on the outcome of a sporting event that would give a known return for that outcome occurring or a known loss if that outcome doesn’t occur (the initial stake). With sports spread betting, gamblers are instead betting on whether a specified outcome in a sports event will end up being above or below a ‘spread’ offered by a sports spread betting firm, with profits or losses determined by how much above or below the spread the final outcome finishes at.
For example, a negative value (-11.5) next to a team indicates that they are favored by that many points. So you must deduct 11.5 points from their score to determine if they won the game or not. On the other hand, a positive value on the same game (+11.5) means the underdog starts with an 11.5-point lead before the game even begins. In NFL betting, the favorite must win by 12 points or more to cover the NFL spread. The underdog is able to lose by 11 points and still cover the spread.
When you see a moneyline value associated with the point spread, it is the percentage amount you must pay in order to book the bet. Also known as the juice or vig, if you see -11.5 (-115), it means you have to bet $115 to win $100 — a 15 percent commission for the sportsbook. The underdog may see a value such as +11.5 (+105), which means you’ll have to bet $100 to win $105 if your team successfully covers the spread.
Round robin betting is a creative type of parlay betting that requires making multiple parlay bets at once. Deriving its name from round robin tournaments—where each team in the tournament plays against each other at least once—this type of betting is when you have a number of betting lines (moneyline bets, spread bets, totals bet, etc.) you want to parlay.
As already mentioned, there have been sports bets since the first sports events. There is evidence that bets were placed on the first Olympic Games in ancient Greece. The bet was placed on the winner of a race or the winner in wrestling. The more matches there were to the games, the more bets there were. The Romans made bets on almost everything that was possible. Among them also the bloody gladiator fights and chariot races. From the very beginning, fraud and manipulation were a means of winning a competition. The Roman Emperor Nero even bribed so much at the Olympic Games in his own country that he won in six different disciplines. One of them was the car race and that although he fell off the car, which normally leads to disqualification. The Olympic Games were then discontinued, but not the sports betting. In the last century there was again a time when sport, especially boxing and horse racing, fell into the hands of criminal gangs. The image of sports betting had to suffer a lot from this bad influence, also because Hollywood used the topic as the basis for many films, as a result of which perception in society drifted further into the negative.
Mississippi became the fourth state in the United States to launch sports betting operations on August 1, 2018 when Gold Strike Casino Resort in Tunica Resorts and Beau Rivage in Biloxi started taking wagers. On August 30, 2018, West Virginia became the fifth state to launch sports betting, with Hollywood Casino at Charles Town Races the first casino to offer sports betting. New Mexico became the sixth state to offer sports betting on October 16, 2018 with the launch of sports betting at the Santa Ana Star Casino in Bernalillo.
Odds are basically a way of leveling the playing field and in college football due to the fact that there are hundreds of mismatches per year the field really does need to be leveled. By utilizing odds in various ways bookmakers are attempting to get an equal number of wagers on each team. In doing so, they are able to ensure that they make cash no matter who wins.
If you like favorites, you're going to be betting a lot to win a little. The money line will always be listed to the right of the point spread on the odds board in a sports book. In the above example, the money line would probably be Chicago -250 and Detroit +200. To bet Chicago simply to win, you must wager $250 to win $100, while a $100 bet on Detroit would pay $200 if the Lions come through.
A wager on the Giants on the spread does not mean that New York has to win the game in order for you to win cash. All the G-Men have to do is come within 8 points of the ‘boys, and you’re a winner. You determine a winning or losing point spread by adding or subtracting 7.5 from the final score, depending on which side you laid your bet. If you’re confident that New York will at least come within a touchdown of beating the Cowboys, or beating them outright, then you’d wager on the spread in favor of New York.
Here's an example: Imagine that using the money line above with the White Sox and the Astros, you want to win about $100. If you place your bet on the favored White Sox, you will pay the bookie $120. If you win, you get your $120 back, plus $100 in winnings. If you lose, the bookie keeps your $120 (technically, bookies collect on losing bets after the game most of the time, but for our example we'll assume the bet is prepaid). If you bet $100 on the Astros, you'll get $110 in winnings if they win, and only lose $100 if they lose.
Head-to-Head. In these bets, bettor predicts competitors results against each other and not on the overall result of the event. One example are Formula One races, where you bet on two or three drivers and their placement among the others. Sometimes you can also bet a “tie”, in which one or both drivers either have the same time, drop out, or get disqualified.
If you bet on the point spread, you’ll often see -110 placed next to each betting option. That means that you have to bet $110 to win $100. The $10 difference is effectively a fee you are paying to place the bet. It can be referred to as the juice or the vig (short for vigorish, which originates from the Russian word for winnings). If there is an even amount of money bet on both sides of the line, the juice guarantees a profit for the house.
Now for American Style Sports Odds. Typically, when you are betting on the point spread, as in topic #1 above, the odds are displayed or implied to be (-110), which is known as American Style odds. The American Style odds format is based on $100. When the number, is displayed as a negative number (-110), it indicates how much money you must risk to realize a profit of $100. In our scenario, you must wager $110 to win $100 profit. If you do, you will receive $210 when you cash in…the winning amount PLUS your initial wager amount.
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For each NFL game the oddsmakers set a number of points in which the favored team is favored by. Bettors can then either choose for the favored team to win by more than the number of points set, or bet on the underdogs to lose by less than the number of points they are underdogs by or win the game straight up. For example, the spread could be set on the favored team at 6.5 points. This would mean in order for a bet on the favored team on the spread to win they would need to win by more than 6.5 points (7 or more) in order to win the bet. It also means that a bet on the underdog team would win if the underdogs lost by less than 6.5 points (6 or less) or won the game outright.
As always, beware of sites offering paid or free NFL betting picks in connection with a varying unit betting system. If you are using their pro football betting picks to gamble on NFL football games, you might consider that some of these sites are providing money tips which are likely to drain your NFL sportsbook account. Earning gambling profits long term takes discipline to know there is always another game to bet on. Most free sports pick sites don't understand that it requires more than winning football predictions to earn a living betting on sports. So for anyone living in an area where NFL gambling is legal, keep in mind that relying on "bet the house" free NFL picks could seriously reduce your NFL betting success.